"Antarctic sea ice extent (SIE) is projected to shrink" (but did not)

Demographic models and IPCC climate projections predict the decline of an emperor penguin population

This article has a correction. Please see:
Correction for Jenouvrier et al., Demographic models and IPCC climate projections predict the decline of an emperor penguin population

The authors note that the following acknowledgment was omitted from the article: “This work was supported by the REMIGE (Behavioural and demographic REsponses of Indian Ocean Marine top predators to Global Environmental changes) program funded by ANR (Agence Nationale de la Recherche) Biodiversité (ANR Biodiv 011).”

Abstract

Studies have reported important effects of recent climate change on Antarctic species, but there has been to our knowledge no attempt to explicitly link those results to forecasted population responses to climate change. Antarctic sea ice extent (SIE) is projected to shrink as concentrations of atmospheric greenhouse gases (GHGs) increase, and emperor penguins (Aptenodytes forsteri) are extremely sensitive to these changes because they use sea ice as a breeding, foraging and molting habitat. We project emperor penguin population responses to future sea ice changes, using a stochastic population model that combines a unique long-term demographic dataset (1962–2005) from a colony in Terre Adélie, Antarctica and projections of SIE from General Circulation Models (GCM) of Earth's climate included in the most recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessment report. We show that the increased frequency of warm events associated with projected decreases in SIE will reduce the population viability. The probability of quasi-extinction (a decline of 95% or more) is at least 36% by 2100. The median population size is projected to decline from ≈6,000 to ≈400 breeding pairs over this period. To avoid extinction, emperor penguins will have to adapt, migrate or change the timing of their growth stages. However, given the future projected increases in GHGs and its effect on Antarctic climate, evolution or migration seem unlikely for such long lived species at the remote southern end of the Earth.

Note that the Antarctic ice has not undergone any sort of melt and sets new records for maximum extent all the time.



Antarctic Sea Ice Reaches New Record Maximum
On Sept. 19, 2014, the five-day average of Antarctic sea ice extent exceeded 20 million square kilometers for the first time since 1979, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center. The red line shows the average maximum extent from 1979-2014.
http://www.nasa.gov/content/goddard/antarctic-sea-ice-reaches-new-record-maximum


"Avian Flu virus isolated from a wild kelp gull (Larus dominicanus)"

Avian influenza virus isolated in wild waterfowl in Argentina: Evidence of a potentially unique phylogenetic lineage in South America

Abstract Avian influenza (AI) viruses have been sporadically isolated in South America. The most recent reports are from an outbreak in commercial poultry in Chile in 2002 and its putative ancestor from a wild bird in Bolivia in 2001. Extensive surveillance in wild birds was carried out in Argentina during 2006–2007. Using RRT-PCR, 12 AI positive detections were made from cloacal swabs. One of those positive samples yielded an AI virus isolated from a wild kelp gull (Larus dominicanus) captured in the South Atlantic coastline of Argentina. Further characterization by nucleotide sequencing reveals that it belongs to the H13N9 subtype. Phylogenetic analysis of the 8 viral genes suggests that the 6 internal genes are related to the isolates from Chile and Bolivia. The analysis also indicates that a cluster of phylogenetically related AI viruses from South America may have evolved independently, with minimal gene exchange, from influenza viruses in other latitudes. The data produced from our investigations are valuable contributions to the study of AI viruses in South America.


Humoral Immune Response to Avian Influenza Vaccination Over a Six-Month Period in Different Species of Captive Wild Birds

In December 2005, the four major Swiss zoos carried out the vaccination of selected zoo birds with the adjuvant inactivated vaccine H5N2 Nobilis influenza. Pre- and post-vaccination antibody titers were determined either by hemagglutination inhibition (HI) test (non-Galliformes) or by enzyme linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) (Galliformes) at Week 0, 5, 10, and 26 (Day 0–1, 35–36, 70–71, and 182 respectively) to determine the humoral immune response to H5 antigen. After the first vaccination, the overall geometric mean titer of non-Galliformes was 65 (n = 142), which increased to 187 (n = 139) after booster vaccination and dropped to 74 (n = 65) six months after first vaccination. For the Galliformes group, the mean titers were found to be 2.09 at Week 5 (n = 119), 3.24 at Week 10 (n = 113), and 1.20 at Week 26 (n = 39). Within the non-Galliformes, significant differences in geometric mean titers were found among different species representatives. In general, the flamingos (Phoenicopteriformes) showed a strong response to vaccination, reaching a geometric mean titer of 659 at Week 10, while the Sphenisciformes did not show high antibody titers even after booster vaccination, reaching a maximum geometric mean titer of only 65. Based on the antibody titer profiles of all investigated species, we recommend at least annual revaccination for the species that we investigated.