rs79.vrx.palo-alto.ca.us

01 bad

02 worse

03 worst

04 none

05 lies

2020 Laura

florence

harvey

sandy

Global Warming and Hurricanes

Either they're wrong about their predictions, or wrong about global warming. Either way it adds to the pile of failed predictions and still have a 100% record of being wrong with these.

01 bad 2013: It's bad 2013 "Hurricanes, typhoons, and cyclones have always bedeviled coasts, but global warming may be making matters worse". - The Union of Concerned Scientists - who also want to spam you to ask for money - from a popup on this page: "Don’t miss out on the latest news about global warming! Sign up to receive critical updates and urgent action opportunities from the Union of Concerned Scientists." From WHO? 02 worse 2013: It's worse "Existing research suggests that hurricanes could become stronger but less frequent thanks to climate change. But a new study says both could happen." 03 worst 2013: It's the worst that could happen "Global warming is causing more hurricanes." "Although scientists were not able to prove that climate change is causing more large hurricanes, they believe the study is consistent with the predictions that global warming and warmer seas could bring about more intense tropical storms." So they can't prove it but they believe it anyway. Like the Easter Bunny. 04 none 2014: Why Hasn’t A Major Hurricane Hit the U.S. in 9 Years? "Experts chalk it up to chance, rather than any identifiable climate pattern or the effect of global warming." "chance" 05 lies 2017: "5 Ways Climate Change May Be Making Hurricanes Worse" Apparently a cessations of hurricanes hitting the United States of Amnesia for an unprecedented number of years is not one of them. "Why this volatility? "Climate scientists say that while a definitive answer is impossible, because the climate is unfathomably complex, there is a vast and growing body of evidence that points toward global warming having an impact on the formation and severity of hurricanes. Heidi Cullen, the chief scientist at the environmental advocacy group Climate Central, compares the cause and effect between climate change and hurricanes to the one that was long ago established between smoking and lung cancer: the risk factors are there." Translation: It can't be proven true but here's a quote from a blog that sounds scary. If "climate is unfathomably complex" and keeps doing things they did not predict, how is this "settled science?"

2020 Laura Cat 4 claims bogus, it was Cat 2 and dropped to a tropical storm as soon as it made landfall. Gusts don't count, sustained wind-speed does. Before landfall (9 PM PDT, Fig 1.0), a nice hurricane structure is apparent, with some winds getting to 90 knots in the eyewall. But then as the storm makes landfall (1 AM PDT Fig 2.0), you can see a profound weakening of winds over land. And by 5 AM PDT (Fig 3.0), with the storm completely over land, the fastest winds are gone. So even if the storm had category four sustained winds near the surface while it is offshore, the sustained winds decline precipitously when the store goes onshore. Fig 1.0 Fig 2.0 Fig 3.0 But here is the issue. What were the maximum sustained winds that occurred last night as Laura made landfall? Looking at all available stations, the highest sustained wind was 98 mph at Lake Charles Airport. The map below shows the sustained winds at 1 AM, when the storm was just moving inland (wind barbs show sustained winds, with gusts in red). The blue arrow indicates Lake Charles Airport. Looking at the sustained winds, one would conclude that Laura was only a weak category two hurricane (96-110 mph). And then there are gusts. Gusts are not used as part of the Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale, but, let’s face it, gusts are very important. The big damage in most storms are done by the gusts. florence 2018 North Carolina Three days away, a Category two storm prompted the Washington Post to declare this hurricane was Trump's fault. Maybe if it actually hits land we can talk. Until then here's a chart of Hurricanes that hit North Carolina. It would be easier to assert he keeps them away. harvey 2017 - Tropical storm Harvey 1) Hurricane Harvey was downgraded to a tropical storm as soon as it hit land. 2) By any metric there are less and less powerful hurricanes now than at any time this century. If "climate change" is making storms worse how come hurricanes stopped right after they first said that? Did "climate change" stop, or were they wrong? Or is there some third option that's not obvious? Texas Hurricanes Bret (Cat 3) 1999 Claudette (Cat 1) 2003 Rita (Cat 2) 2005 Humberto (Cat 1) 2007 Dolly (Cat 1) 2008 Ike (Cat 2) 2008 Harvey (Cat 4/Tropical Storm) 2017 Ref: "Chronological List of All Hurricanes which Affected the Continental United States: 1851-2012". Hurricane Research Division (2012), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration After category 5 hurricane Katrina hit the US in 2005 it was one of the few hurricanes that hit that decade; the period 1984 to 1998 was the time of maximal hurricane activity, with many states getting more than one a year, but after the El Nino peak in 1998 they all but stopped for years, and when they resumed 5-10 years later they still only happened every few years in each state, not every year or two or more per years. This is not worse or more extreme, it didn't even manage to maintain hurricane status once its hit land, it's just a storm. After Katrina, just to keep up the idea hurricanes were worse not, you'd need 10 years of cat five hurricanes a year to establish a new "normal". To show it's worse that 12 years ago when Katrina hit you'd need two Cat 5 hurricanes a year for a decade. One storm that's upgraded briefly to a hurricane but loses all its energy when it hits land and is downgraded from a hurricane does not count, it's not even close. While I have empathy with those suffering at the moment I question whether selling them buildings on a flood plain was ethical. sandy 2012: If global warming makes these worse why have they all but stopped? If there's anything in this data at all, it looks like CO2 is preventing more hurricanes from making landfall in the US. After hurricane Katrina in 2005 the claim was made "global warming is making weather worse" - and then no hurricane made landfall in Florida for over a decade. How is this "worse" ? Is this the only thing they got wrong? No. Look inside. “Neither the frequency of tropical or extratropical cyclones over the North Atlantic are projected to appreciably change due to climate change, nor have there been indications of a change in their statistical behavior over this region in recent decades,” MIT hurricane researcher Kerry Emanuel, in a commentary in Foreign Policy, stated trying to establish a causal connection between Sandy and climate change is essentially hopeless. “Attributing Sandy or any other single event to long-term climate trends is rather like blaming El Niño for a car accident on the Santa Monica Freeway,” Emanuel said. Science blogger David Appell adds: ...blaming everything on climate change is as misleading as ignoring or denying it completely. More importantly, it’s ineffective, not least because it ruins your credibility.