rs79.vrx.palo-alto.ca.us
The mechanics of the rhetoric of climate.


The mechanics of the rhetoric of climate.

http://psych.colorado.edu/~vanboven/teaching/p7536_heurbias/p7536_readings/kruger_dunning.pdf


How to tell if you're having a rational discussion with somebody. And how to tell if you aren't.



The Dunning-Kruger Effect

Why The Incompetent Don't Know They're Incompetent.



http://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2017/02/27/why-facts-dont-change-our-minds

Why facts don't change our minds

The vaunted human capacity for reason may have more to do with winning arguments than with thinking straight.


You're not going to believe what I'm about to tell you

The Oatmeal. This is a comic about the backfire effect.


How science became corrupted

Science per se cannot be "broken" but it can be corrupted. This article explains the problem with contemporaneous reserch and why exactly so much of it is utter garbage.


"Put yourself in this scenario: Someone asks you and seven other people a stupidly simple question, but all of the others give the wrong answer. Do you contradict the majority and answer correctly, or do you say the wrong thing, too, despite everyone else being a dumbass? If you said, "I'd tell the truth and laugh in their faces," you're either in the minority or delusional -- in a series of famous experiments in the 1950s, psychologist Solomon Asch put people in that exact same situation, and 75 percent of them conformed and gave the blatantly wrong answer at least once. And it's not like they were solving complex arithmetic problems: They just had to look at four lines and tell which ones were the same length. When there wasn't a group of actors being wrong around them, the rate of error was less than 1 percent.

And no, it's not just because everyone was a bunch of mindless conformists in the 1950s -- the experiment has been repeated over and over again with similar results. "


Descartesís 12 Tenets of Critical Thinking

  1. The aim of our studies must be the direction of our mind so that it may form solid and true judgments on whatever matters arise.
  2. We must occupy ourselves only with those objects that our intellectual powers appear competent to know certainly and indubitably.
  3. As regards any subject we propose to investigate, we must inquire not what other people have thought, or what we ourselves conjecture, but what we can clearly and manifestly perceive by intuition or deduce with certainty. For there is no other way of acquiring knowledge. There is need of a method for finding out the truth.
  4. Method consists entirely in the order and disposition of the objects towards which our mental vision must be directed if we would find out any truth. We shall comply with it exactly if we reduce involved and obscure propositions step by step to those that are simpler, and then starting with the intuitive apprehension of all those that are absolutely simple, attempt to ascend to the knowledge of all others by precisely similar steps.
  5. In order to separate out what is quite simple from what is complex, and to arrange these matters methodically, we ought, in the case of every series in which we have deduced certain facts the one from the other, to notice which fact is simple, and to mark the interval, greater, less, or equal, which separates all the others from this.
  6. If we wish our science to be complete, those matters which promote the end we have in view must one and all be scrutinized by a movement of thought which is continuous and nowhere interrupted; they must also be included in an enumeration which is both adequate and methodical.
  7. If in the matters to be examined we come to a step in the series of which our understanding is not sufficiently well able to have an intuitive cognition, we must stop short there. We must make no attempt to examine what follows; thus we shall spare ourselves superfluous labour.
  8. We ought to give the whole of our attention to the most insignificant and most easily mastered facts, and remain a long time in contemplation of them until we are accustomed to behold the truth clearly and distinctly. In order that it may acquire sagacity the mind should be exercised in pursuing just those inquiries of which the solution has already been found by others; and it ought to traverse in a systematic way even the most trifling of menís inventions though those ought to be preferred in which order is explained or implied.
  9. If, after we have recognized intuitively a number of simple truths, we wish to draw any inference from them, it is useful to run them over in a continuous and uninterrupted act of thought, to reflect upon their relations to one another, and to grasp together distinctly a number of these propositions so far as is possible at the same time. For this is a way of making our knowledge much more certain, and of greatly increasing the power of the mind.
  10. Finally we ought to employ all the aids of understanding, imagination, sense and memory, first for the purpose of having a distinct intuition of simple propositions; partly also in order to compare the propositions

How To Recognize A Fake News Story

  1. Read Past The Headline
  2. Check What News Outlet Published It
  3. Check The Publish Date And Time
  4. Who Is The Author?
  5. Look At What Links And Sources Are Used
  6. Look Out For Questionable Quotes And Photos
  7. Beware Confirmation Bias
  8. Search If Other News Outlets Are Reporting It
  9. Think Before You Share

Mayan 2012

When nothing happened in 2012 when the world didn't end as predicted, believers, for a couple of reasons couldn't cope. This is going to happen again.